Modelling the impacts of climate change on potential cultivation area and water deficit in five Mediterranean crops

Aim of study: To assess the impacts climate change on local agriculture with a high resolution in Mediterranean region diversity climates.Area Catalonia (NW Spain).Material and methods: Based historical meteorological records regionalization RCP4.5 model created by Catalan Meteorological Service, Papadakis agro-climate classification was calculated for two scenarios. The changes agro-climatic suitability irrigation needs five typical crops (alfalfa, almond, barley, olive orange) were analysed. Main results: In 2031-2050 scenario, over 15% study area will no longer be adequate non-irrigated almond or olive, at locations which they have been traditionally rainfed crops. If is provided, orange likely to become agro-climatically suited entire coastline. Were current crop distribution maintained, may increase average 16% future scenario.Research highlights: High-resolution GIS data combined Papadakis’ classical method compare different scenarios detect risks opportunities regional agriculture.